Victor Davis Hanson
There are lots of hysterias, lies, and untruths about the Ukrainian envisioned “peace” and “settlement.” Here are a few:
1) The Donbas and Crimea misinformation. It was never the policy of the Obama administration—during which its foolish Russian “reset” blew up when Putin invaded the Donbas and Crimea—to retake either Crimea or the Donbas.
Obama, remember, in March 2012, all but invited Putin into Ukraine when he got caught on a hot mic in Seoul, South Korea while, Chamberlain-like, giving a disastrous concession to Russian President Medvedev—and Vladimir Putin.
Here is his message to Putin:
Obama. “On all these issues, but particularly missile defense, this, this can be solved but it’s important for him to give me space.
Medvedev: Yeah, I understand. I understand your message about space. Space for you.
Obama: This is my last election…After my election I have more flexibility.”
We forget that both got what they wanted out of this de facto deal—to the detriment of the U.S. and its allies.
The Russians obtained the end of allied regional missile defense—an asset that would have been invaluable for Eastern Europeans, given the Russian threats that have followed from the Ukraine war.
And Obama?
Yes, he got “space” from Putin. And so, the Russians stayed put until Obama was safely reelected (his “last election”). And, yes, Putin got “flexibility” on missile defense—in that Obama, in exchange for having a calm world during his reelection bid, canceled, per Putin’s request, Eastern European defense. A conspiracist might cry out over the Putin-Obama deal “Russian collusion! Russian collusion!”
So, Putin, then, sized up the Obama-Biden-Hillary Clinton “Russian reset” as the appeasement that it was, waited patiently, and then after getting rid of U.S.-supplied missile defense agendas, moved with absolute impunity into Crimea and the Donbas.
Note once more carefully: until February 24, 2022, it was never the policy, rightly or wrongly, of either the Obama or Biden administration to take back by force (i.e., arming Ukraine to conduct massive offensive operations to retake Crimea and the Donbas) territory grabbed by Putin in 2014.
Now after eleven years of Russian occupation, no one realistically believes anyone in Europe has the wherewithal or desire to militarily retake either region.
So, what is the problem with admitting the obvious?
Did Trump lose a negotiating point by not claiming something that neither the West nor the Russians ever thought was possible—the military recapture of the Donbas and Crimea?
The historical fact is that both areas had large numbers of Russian speakers and that Crimea was independent from 1992–95—until Ukraine annexed it before Russia could.
The Donbas was Ukrainian only due to an intra-Soviet administrative move during the 1950s Soviet Union era, when Moscow gave the Ukrainian province/republic jurisdiction over the Donbas and altered the intra-Soviet administrative borders. After the fall of the USSR, the Donbas voiced various opinions in referenda from being autonomous to joining Ukraine to rejoining the Russian Federation. The point was that there was never any clear-cut notion that the Donbas was either an autonomous or Ukrainian region separate from the Russian state.
Bottom line: No NATO member, no U.S. president, and no Ukrainian president has ever led an effort to reacquire the Donbas and Crimea after 2014.
To claim otherwise is a lie.
2) Ukraine Can Really Win the War?
Ukraine can certainly injure and damage Russia—in the way Finland humiliated the Red Army and inflicted horrific causalities on the Russians in the Winter War of 1939–40.
The 1941 Hitlerian Operation Barbarossa, like Napoleon’s invasion of 1812, initially did well. But neither Hitler nor Napoleon could realistically have defeated Russia. Finland is remembered for its heroic resistance in 1939, not its concession in 1940 to settle with Stalin and concede 10 percent of its territory in order not to be overrun completely.
The bottom line: Russia fights poorly 1) when far from its borders (fighting Japan in 1904–05; invading Poland 1919–21; invading Afghanistan 1979); 2) but when fighting anywhere near or inside its borders, its initial failures usually are addressed and after great losses, blunders, and incompetence, Russia eventually wins. And it will do so against Ukraine if this war continues at the cost of hundreds of thousands of lives and the utter destruction of Ukraine.
The post <span class="ultra-flag 4"><i class="fas fa-lock"></i>VDH Ultra</span>Ukrainian Bitter Realities and Visions of a Peace Deal? Part One appeared first on VDH’s Blade of Perseus.